According to Buster Olney, the Cleveland Indians have signed free agent first baseman Russell Branyan to a one-year, $2-million contract. Branyan had also been linked to another one of his former teams, the Tampa Bay Rays, in the past week but will head back to Cleveland.
At first glance, I like the move a lot for the Indians. Branyan had a solid campaign for the Seattle Mariners in 2009, batting .251/.347/.520 with 31 homers, 76 RBIs and a 128 OPS+ in 505 plate appearances before sustaining an injury in August. He even played decent defense according to UZR (1.8 UZR) at first base, albeit in a small sample size. Overall, the veteran slugger, a favorite of Three True Outcome fans for the past decade, accumulated 2.8 WAR for Seattle. Given how cheap he came last offseason, he essentially proved to be one of the better bargains in the game.
Unfortunately for Branyan’s free agent stock, though, his season came to an end in August when he went to the disabled list with a herniated disc in his back. The injury, his age, and concerns about his defense, especially in a market saturated with players of similar skill sets, drove down his market price and led to him being available in free agency three days into spring training. As well, his poor second half after an excellent start was another red flag. He posted an impressive line of .280/.382/.573 in 286 at-bats prior to the All-Star break, good for a .973 OPS. From that point on, though, his OPS fell down to .688. Of course, the injury contributed to the poor performance, but it’s hard to overlook his .193 post-break batting average.
Even still, yet again Branyan should prove to be a savvy move for the Indians, likely netting them a cheap win or two. The question is what does his presence mean for the rest of the team’s lineup.
Before the signing, 25-year-old Matt LaPorta, the key return in the July 2008 CC Sabathia trade, was expected to man first base to the Tribe, moving in from the outfield. LaPorta, still adjusting to first base and coming off a hip injury, has a bright future, and you can make a legitimate argument that the team should let him gain experience given where it falls on the success spectrum. However, the signing doesn’t preclude him from seeing significant playing time and garnering enough at-bats, either at first base or in left field. He’s projected to hit .263/.337/.457 by CHONE, but as a rare right-handed bat in a lefty-heavy lineup, will surely be a key contributor for the club either way; though, Branyan’s platoon splits aren’t as much of an issue as commonly advertised. Plus, given how high scouts have been on his bat since his days at the University of Florida, he could breakout as well. In the field, he’s an unproven commodity at first base, so a safe projection would peg him slightly below average at his new position. In other words, Branyan is only a minor upgrade and the team wouldn’t want to block LaPorta, but again the key factor to consider here is depth.
For one, Cleveland designated hitter Travis Hafner is no lock to stay healthy. While Hafner is believed to be in good shape, planning on an insurance plan for him is never a bad idea. The left-handed slugger rebounded last season from a disastrous 2008, hitting .272/.355/.470 with 16 home runs and a 121 OPS+. However, he was again limited to just 94 games, and objectively you just can’t count on him to accumulate more than 500 plate appearances, something he’s only done once during his career. For that fact, having Branyan as a potential DH option was a fine strategy.
As well, LaPorta can always play left field, potentially shifting speedster Michael Brantley to the bench/minors. While that fact will tick off fantasy owners given Brantley’s upside in steals, it may not be the worst thing for him to get more time at Triple-A. Although speed players generally have higher batting average on balls in play than others, his .313 batting average last year screams regression considering the corresponding .376 BABIP. He flashed solid walk rates in the minors, so even if his batting average were to drop, he’d be a decent asset offensively by getting on base. Yet, he has no power and the defensive metrics are inconclusive.
Former top prospect Andy Marte, who posted an 85 OPS+ in 175 major league plate appearances last year, could be the odd man out. As many chances as Marte has had, though, that's not a sure thing. The player once ranked as the number nine overall prospect in the minors according to Baseball America had a rebound at Triple-A Columbus in '09, hitting .327/.369/.593 with 18 homers in 82 games. The corresponding roster move will surely be interesting.
Branyan can also play left field and perhaps even some third base if needed, but overall adds another power bat to a lineup that could use one. He was hoping for a lot more money, there’s no question. But you’ve got to tip your cap to the Indians. Yeah, they won’t be contending anytime soon, but that offense should score some runs while their deep stable of promising arms—they sure acquired a lot, even if most of their moves screamed a strategy of quantity over quality when hoarding prospects in the Cliff Lee/Victor Martinez trades—continue to develop. It’s going to be a while until they compete, especially with how strong the Minnesota Twins are. But for $2-million, possibly $3-million if he reaches incentives, Branyan was worth going after. All in all, this was pretty smart move by an organization that’s in good hands going forward with their impending GM change.
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